Commodity Market Report
North America gas long-term outlook H1 2020 data: Black swans usher in paradigm shifts
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Report summary
The coronavirus pandemic and oil price collapse are testing the North American gas market. It was more than 25 years ago that Henry Hub stayed under $2.00/mmbtu for six consecutive months. What kind of paradigm shifts are these events previewing? This outlook features a material price premium for Henry Hub in the short term compared to our prior outlook and the current market futures as the gas market undergoes structural changes for both supply and demand. Prices gain further support toward the end of the decade as exports and demand expand. In the long term, however, price forecast flattens as the energy transition becomes paramount. We now expect Henry Hub to stay under $4.00/mmbtu for most of the forecast period.
Table of contents
- The impact of associated gas reduction weights more on prices than demand destruction in the near term
- Increasing LNG exports and retiring the last tranche of coal plants will firm up prices in the medium term
- Energy transition reduces gas demand and flattens price trajectory in the long term
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