Commodity Market Report

North America gas long-term outlook H2 2020 data: An export-driven future anchored on robust medium-term growth

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17 December 2020

North America gas long-term outlook H2 2020 data: An export-driven future anchored on robust medium-term growth

Report summary

Our latest long-term outlook incorporates current energy transition themes into our forecast, such as deep renewable penetration, the rise of hydrogen, and electrification in the heating sector. We have also extended our forecast horizon to 2050. North American domestic demand looks to peak by the mid-2030s, but North American gas supply is not expected to reach its peak until almost a decade later at around 145 bcfd – a 40 bcfd increase from today’s level – as we remain optimistic about the future of global LNG demand and exports out of North America. While uncertainty surrounds the path towards decarbonization, our robust demand and export growth forecast for the medium-term underscores the crucial role that natural gas will continue to play in the future energy mix.

Table of contents

  • 2021-2030: Sustained economic recovery drives LNG exports while carbon neutral targets in the US benefit domestic gas demand
  • 2031-2040: Headwinds emerging with LNG project delays despite associated supply downgrades
  • 2041-2050: Decarbonization will pull down gas demand but Henry Hub stays above $4/mmbtu with rising exports and resource exhaustion

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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    NAGS LTO New Industrial Capacity 2020 H2

    XLS 538.00 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Price Outlook 2020 H2

    XLS 1.49 MB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Supply And Demand Balances 2020 H2

    XLS 1.12 MB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Supply Breakout 2020 H2

    XLS 1.14 MB

  • Document

    NAGS LNG Breakout 2020 H2

    XLS 913.00 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Demand Breakout 2020 H2

    XLS 2.41 MB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Infrastructure 2020 H2

    XLS 286.00 KB

  • Document

    North America gas long-term outlook H2 2020 data: An export-driven future anchored on robust medium-term growth

    PDF 737.70 KB