Commodity Market Report
North America gas long-term outlook H2 2020 data: An export-driven future anchored on robust medium-term growth
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Report summary
Our latest long-term outlook incorporates current energy transition themes into our forecast, such as deep renewable penetration, the rise of hydrogen, and electrification in the heating sector. We have also extended our forecast horizon to 2050. North American domestic demand looks to peak by the mid-2030s, but North American gas supply is not expected to reach its peak until almost a decade later at around 145 bcfd – a 40 bcfd increase from today’s level – as we remain optimistic about the future of global LNG demand and exports out of North America. While uncertainty surrounds the path towards decarbonization, our robust demand and export growth forecast for the medium-term underscores the crucial role that natural gas will continue to play in the future energy mix.
Table of contents
- 2021-2030: Sustained economic recovery drives LNG exports while carbon neutral targets in the US benefit domestic gas demand
- 2031-2040: Headwinds emerging with LNG project delays despite associated supply downgrades
- 2041-2050: Decarbonization will pull down gas demand but Henry Hub stays above $4/mmbtu with rising exports and resource exhaustion
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