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North America gas long-term outlook highlights—H1 2016


North America gas long-term outlook highlights—H1 2016

Report summary

North American gas markets are dealing with the remnants of another mild winter, but fundamentals look to push prices up to $3.75/mmbtu in 2017 as demand accelerates just as oil and gas drilling have collapsed. After a subsequent ramp-up in drilling, we expect Henry Hub prices to hover around $3/mmbtu from 2018 to 2022, an amount which is stronger than our previous outlook. Northeast pipeline delays and lower liquids prices lead to a higher outlook for prices, and while demand looks to be robust, there are chinks in the armor in terms of a lower power burn and lower LNG liquefaction utilization. Better upstream economics and Northeast pipeline delays give an upside for WCSB production. In this short note, we provide our preliminary annualized prices for Henry Hub, Transco Leidy Line and Dominion South Point out to 2022 and outline the levers and risks. Our traditional long-term highlights update will follow soon.

What's included?

This report includes 8 file(s)

  • North America gas long-term outlook highlights—H1 2016 PDF - 250.01 KB 3 Pages, 0 Tables, 1 Figures
  • NAGS LTO Supply and Demand Balances Spring 2016.xls XLS - 949.50 KB
  • NAGS LTO NGV Breakout Spring 2016.xls XLS - 665.00 KB
  • NAGS LTO LNG Breakout Spring 2016.xls XLS - 819.50 KB
  • NAGS LTO Infrastructure Spring 2016.xls XLS - 188.50 KB
  • NAGS LTO Demand Breakout Spring 2016.xls XLS - 1.71 MB
  • NAGS LTO Price Outlook Spring 2016.xls XLS - 934.50 KB
  • NAGS LTO Supply Breakout Spring 2016.xls XLS - 754.50 KB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Introduction
    • Supply-side drivers are bullish
      • Northeast pipeline delays limit the extent to which Marcellus and Utica gas can serve demand in other regions
      • Weaker liquids prices mean lower drilling and supply from oil and rich-gas plays
    • While our demand outlook has weakened
      • Gas demand in the power sector is weaker structurally
      • LNG export facilities will not run at capacity
    • Canada: brighter outlook on exports
      • Better upstream economics and Northeast pipeline delays mean upside for WCSB production

In this report there is 1 table or chart, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Price outlook
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