Commodity market report
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53 Pages

North America gas markets long-term outlook H1 2013

North America gas markets long-term outlook H1 2013

Report summary

North American gas markets rallied from 2012 lows, but despite the improved price levels, gas-related rig counts continue to decline. This discipline on the production side is matched by a relatively stable market size, so for the 2013-’15 period, we expect Henry Hub prices to range between $3.75 and $4.25/mmbtu in real terms. 

What's included?

This report includes 8 file(s)

  • North America gas markets long-term outlook H1 2013 PDF - 3.16 MB 53 Pages, 8 Tables, 38 Figures
  • NA Gas LTV Highlights Spring 2013.pdf PDF - 64.82 KB
  • nags ltv demand breakout spring 2013.xls XLS - 2.70 MB
  • nags ltv infrastructure and storage spring 2013.xls XLS - 227.00 KB
  • nags ltv price outlook spring 2013.xls XLS - 970.50 KB
  • nags ltv new industrial capacity spring 2013.xls XLS - 1010.50 KB
  • nags ltv supply and demand spring 2013.xls XLS - 2.00 MB
  • NAGS LTV Word doc charts.xls XLS - 832.00 KB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Prices and Markets
      • Through 2016: domestic markets define price
      • Back half of the decade: a different dash for gas
      • Long-term markets
  • Supply
    • Producers response to dictate medium term production rebound
    • Key plays-growth remains concentrated on leading plays
      • Marcellus-wells and drilling continue to improve while infrastructure remains a constraint
      • Piceance-Marginal gas resource, but massive opportunity
    • Regional production trends
    • Drilling outlook-reduced call on gas rigs till the second half of the decade
    • Canada
    • Key risks to outlook
      • Downside pricing risks
      • Upside pricing risks
    • Mexico: Power generation leads to increased imports
  • Demand
    • Power generation
      • Key messages
      • Major risk factors
      • Power sector gas burn changes
      • Coal-gas substitution dynamics
      • Regional distribution
    • Industrial
    • Residential and commercial
    • US NGV outlook
      • Transport
      • Marine bunker fuel
      • Global markets
      • North American LNG export outlook
      • US
      • Canada
      • Alaska
      • Export Policy
    • Proposed Projects
      • US Lower 48 LNG
      • Alaska LNG
      • Canada LNG
    • Canada
      • Domestic Demand
      • Power
      • Oil Sands
      • Core Industrial
      • Residential/Commercial
      • Canada NGV outlook
      • Net Exports
      • Mexico
  • Infrastructure
    • Pipeline expansions
    • Marcellus and Utica-accommodating growth
    • Redirecting Western supplies.
    • Basis: weak east, weaker west, and the low seasonal spreads
      • The Northeast: Changing dynamics
      • The Northeast: The infrastructure impact
      • The Rockies and California: Near term together, long term apart
      • AECO, Dawn, Chicago: Down they go
      • Gulf Coast: Shale Gas vs. LNG Exports

In this report there are 46 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Chart 1. Relative gas, coal (heat rate adjusted) and oil prices
    • Chart 2. Marginal play and price
    • Chart 3. Change in production and play breakevens
  • Supply
    • Table 1. Key US plays supply metrics
    • Chart 4. Change in Marcellus production by area from
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Supply: Image 4
    • Figure 1. North American supply growth (relative to 2013) by region and key play
    • Supply: Image 6
    • Supply: Image 7
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Chart 10. Mexico supply
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Table 3. Power sector gas risks
    • Chart 13. Power sector gas burn
    • Chart 14. Coal-gas substitution versus fuel price ratio
    • Figure 2. Census-region gas burn, 20130-2025
    • Demand: Image 6
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Chart 17. Core heating demand and use per customer
    • Demand: Image 9
    • Demand: Image 10
    • Demand: Image 11
    • Demand: Image 12
    • Chart 22. Global gas price outlook
    • Chart 23. North America LNG export outlook
    • Demand: Table 2
    • Demand: Table 3
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Chart 24. Canadian natural gas demand
    • Chart 25. Canadian power demand by province
    • Chart 26. Gas demand for oil sands by technology
    • Chart 27. Canadian NGV demand
    • Chart 28. Mexico demand growth
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Table 1
    • Infrastructure: Table 2
    • Infrastructure: Image 1
    • Infrastructure: Image 2
    • Chart 31. Rockies export flows
    • Chart 32. Marcellus basis outlook
    • Chart 33. Northeast basis outlook
    • Chart 34. California and Rockies basis outlook
    • Chart 35. Midwest and Canadian basis outlook
    • Chart 36. Texas basis outlook
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