Commodity market report

North America gas markets long-term outlook H1 2013

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Report summary

North American gas markets rallied from 2012 lows but despite the improved price levels gas related rig counts continue to decline. This discipline on the production side is matched by a relatively stable market size so for the 2013 15 period we expect Henry Hub prices to range between $3.75 and $4.25/mmbtu in real terms.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    NA Gas LTV Highlights Spring 2013.pdf

    PDF 64.82 KB

  • Document

    nags ltv demand breakout spring 2013.xls

    XLS 2.70 MB

  • Document

    nags ltv infrastructure and storage spring 2013.xls

    XLS 227.00 KB

  • Document

    nags ltv price outlook spring 2013.xls

    XLS 970.50 KB

  • Document

    nags ltv new industrial capacity spring 2013.xls

    XLS 1010.50 KB

  • Document

    nags ltv supply and demand spring 2013.xls

    XLS 2.00 MB

  • Document

    North America gas markets long-term outlook H1 2013

    PDF 3.16 MB

  • Document

    North America gas markets long-term outlook H1 2013

    ZIP 6.25 MB

  • Document

    NAGS LTV Word doc charts.xls

    XLS 832.00 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 444.26 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 1.18 MB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 1.36 MB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 484.40 KB

Table of contents

      • Through 2016: domestic markets define price
      • Back half of the decade: a different dash for gas
      • Long-term markets
    • Producers response to dictate medium term production rebound
      • Marcellus-wells and drilling continue to improve while infrastructure remains a constraint
      • Piceance-Marginal gas resource, but massive opportunity
    • Regional production trends
    • Drilling outlook-reduced call on gas rigs till the second half of the decade
    • Canada
      • Downside pricing risks
      • Upside pricing risks
    • Mexico: Power generation leads to increased imports
      • Key messages
      • Major risk factors
      • Power sector gas burn changes
      • Coal-gas substitution dynamics
      • Regional distribution
    • Industrial
    • Residential and commercial
      • Transport
      • Marine bunker fuel
      • Global markets
      • North American LNG export outlook
      • US
      • Canada
      • Alaska
      • Export Policy
      • US Lower 48 LNG
      • Alaska LNG
      • Canada LNG
      • Domestic Demand
      • Power
      • Oil Sands
      • Core Industrial
      • Residential/Commercial
      • Canada NGV outlook
      • Net Exports
      • Mexico
    • Pipeline expansions
    • Marcellus and Utica-accommodating growth
    • Redirecting Western supplies.
      • The Northeast: Changing dynamics
      • The Northeast: The infrastructure impact
      • The Rockies and California: Near term together, long term apart
      • AECO, Dawn, Chicago: Down they go
      • Gulf Coast: Shale Gas vs. LNG Exports

Tables and charts

This report includes 46 images and tables including:

Images

  • Demand: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Figure 1. North American supply growth (relative to 2013) by region and key play
  • Supply: Image 6
  • Supply: Image 7
  • Chart 10. Mexico supply
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Chart 17. Core heating demand and use per customer
  • Infrastructure: Image 1
  • Infrastructure: Image 2
  • Chart 31. Rockies export flows
  • Chart 1. Relative gas, coal (heat rate adjusted) and oil prices
  • Chart 2. Marginal play and price
  • Chart 3. Change in production and play breakevens
  • Chart 4. Change in Marcellus production by area from
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Chart 13. Power sector gas burn
  • Chart 14. Coal-gas substitution versus fuel price ratio
  • Figure 2. Census-region gas burn, 20130-2025
  • Demand: Image 9
  • Demand: Image 10
  • Demand: Image 11
  • Demand: Image 12
  • Chart 22. Global gas price outlook
  • Chart 23. North America LNG export outlook
  • Chart 24. Canadian natural gas demand
  • Chart 25. Canadian power demand by province
  • Chart 26. Gas demand for oil sands by technology
  • Chart 27. Canadian NGV demand
  • Chart 28. Mexico demand growth
  • Chart 32. Marcellus basis outlook
  • Chart 33. Northeast basis outlook
  • Chart 34. California and Rockies basis outlook
  • Chart 35. Midwest and Canadian basis outlook
  • Chart 36. Texas basis outlook

Tables

  • Table 1. Key US plays supply metrics
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Infrastructure: Table 1
  • Infrastructure: Table 2
  • Table 3. Power sector gas risks
  • Demand: Table 2
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Demand: Table 4

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