Commodity Market Report

North America gas markets long-term outlook H1 2013

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15 June 2013

North America gas markets long-term outlook H1 2013

Report summary

North American gas markets rallied from 2012 lows, but despite the improved price levels, gas-related rig counts continue to decline. This discipline on the production side is matched by a relatively stable market size, so for the 2013-’15 period, we expect Henry Hub prices to range between $3.75 and $4.25/mmbtu in real terms. 

Table of contents

    • Prices and Markets
      • Through 2016: domestic markets define price
      • Back half of the decade: a different dash for gas
      • Long-term markets
    • Producers response to dictate medium term production rebound
    • Key plays-growth remains concentrated on leading plays
      • Marcellus-wells and drilling continue to improve while infrastructure remains a constraint
      • Piceance-Marginal gas resource, but massive opportunity
    • Regional production trends
    • Drilling outlook-reduced call on gas rigs till the second half of the decade
    • Canada
    • Key risks to outlook
      • Downside pricing risks
      • Upside pricing risks
    • Mexico: Power generation leads to increased imports
    • Power generation
      • Key messages
      • Major risk factors
      • Power sector gas burn changes
      • Coal-gas substitution dynamics
      • Regional distribution
    • Industrial
    • Residential and commercial
    • US NGV outlook
      • Transport
      • Marine bunker fuel
      • Global markets
      • North American LNG export outlook
      • US
      • Canada
      • Alaska
      • Export Policy
    • Proposed Projects
      • US Lower 48 LNG
      • Alaska LNG
      • Canada LNG
    • Canada
      • Domestic Demand
      • Power
      • Oil Sands
      • Core Industrial
      • Residential/Commercial
      • Canada NGV outlook
      • Net Exports
      • Mexico
    • Pipeline expansions
    • Marcellus and Utica-accommodating growth
    • Redirecting Western supplies.
    • Basis: weak east, weaker west, and the low seasonal spreads
      • The Northeast: Changing dynamics
      • The Northeast: The infrastructure impact
      • The Rockies and California: Near term together, long term apart
      • AECO, Dawn, Chicago: Down they go
      • Gulf Coast: Shale Gas vs. LNG Exports

Tables and charts

This report includes 46 images and tables including:

  • Demand: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Table 1. Key US plays supply metrics
  • Figure 1. North American supply growth (relative to 2013) by region and key play
  • Supply: Image 6
  • Supply: Image 7
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Chart 10. Mexico supply
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Chart 17. Core heating demand and use per customer
  • Infrastructure: Table 1
  • Infrastructure: Table 2
  • Infrastructure: Image 1
  • Infrastructure: Image 2
  • Chart 31. Rockies export flows
  • Chart 1. Relative gas, coal (heat rate adjusted) and oil prices
  • Chart 2. Marginal play and price
  • Chart 3. Change in production and play breakevens
  • Chart 4. Change in Marcellus production by area from
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Table 3. Power sector gas risks
  • Chart 13. Power sector gas burn
  • Chart 14. Coal-gas substitution versus fuel price ratio
  • Figure 2. Census-region gas burn, 20130-2025
  • Demand: Image 9
  • Demand: Image 10
  • Demand: Image 11
  • Demand: Image 12
  • Chart 22. Global gas price outlook
  • Chart 23. North America LNG export outlook
  • Demand: Table 2
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Chart 24. Canadian natural gas demand
  • Chart 25. Canadian power demand by province
  • Chart 26. Gas demand for oil sands by technology
  • Chart 27. Canadian NGV demand
  • Chart 28. Mexico demand growth
  • Chart 32. Marcellus basis outlook
  • Chart 33. Northeast basis outlook
  • Chart 34. California and Rockies basis outlook
  • Chart 35. Midwest and Canadian basis outlook
  • Chart 36. Texas basis outlook

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    North America gas markets long-term outlook H1 2013

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