Commodity Market Report

North America gas markets sensitivity: No Carbon Policy, developed from the H1 2020 long-term outlook

Get this report

$10,800

You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.
 

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

02 October 2020

North America gas markets sensitivity: No Carbon Policy, developed from the H1 2020 long-term outlook

Report summary

Our H1 2020 long-term outlook base case has an underlying assumption of federal long-term carbon policy, a flat US carbon tax of $2/short ton beginning in 2028 that increases to $26/short ton by 2040, consistent with the global view. However, this No Carbon Policy sensitivity assumes a future without any US federal carbon policy, where power sector carbon emissions can grow unabated outside of state and regional initiatives. Under this scenario, 26 GW of age-based coal retirements outside of those currently announced or deemed uneconomic by 2040 are removed. Renewable generation build will continue to increase but at a slower pace. Power demand for gas will be lower overall, but the story varies by region. Key questions addressed in the analysis: • How much gas demand in the power sector is lost to coal? • Will all regions see lower gas burn? • What is the effect of lower overall power burn on Henry Hub and regional basis prices? • Which supply regions will be most affected?

Table of contents

  • This No Carbon case represents our view on the gas market in the absence of any kind of federal carbon policy but with the continuance of non-federal CO 2 cap-and-trade programs and regional CO 2 markets, such as California-AB32,RGGI and Canadian initiatives.

Tables and charts

No table or charts specified

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    NAGS_No_Carbon_Case_H1_2020.pdf

    PDF 1.05 MB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Supply and Demand Balances 2020 H1 No Carbon.xls

    XLS 987.00 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Supply Breakout 2020 H1 No Carbon.xls

    XLS 1.12 MB

  • Document

    NAGS LNG Breakout 2020 H1 No Carbon.xls

    XLS 859.00 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Demand Breakout 2020 H1 No Carbon.xls

    XLS 1.92 MB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Price Outlook 2020 H1 No Carbon.xls

    XLS 1.04 MB