Commodity Market Report

North America gas markets sensitivity: No Carbon Policy, developed from the H2 2019 long-term outlook

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05 March 2020

North America gas markets sensitivity: No Carbon Policy, developed from the H2 2019 long-term outlook

Report summary

Wood Mackenzie's H2 2019 long-term outlook base case has an underlying assumption of federal long-term carbon policy, a flat US carbon tax of $2/short ton beginning in 2028 that increases to $26/short ton by 2040. However, this No Carbon Policy sensitivity assumes a future without any US federal carbon policy. Under this scenario, 30 GW of age-based coal retirements outside of those currently announced or deemed uneconomic by 2040 are removed. Renewable generation build will continue to increase but at a slower pace. Power demand for gas will be lower overall, but the story varies by region. Key questions addressed in the analysis: • How much gas demand in the power sector is lost to coal? • Will all regions see lower gas burn? • What is the effect of lower overall power burn on gas prices? • Which supply regions will be most affected?

Table of contents

  • This No Carbon case represents our view on the gas market in the absence of any kind of federal carbon policy but with the continuance of non-federal CO2 cap-and-trade programs and regional CO2 markets, such as California-AB32,RGGI and Canadian initiatives .

Tables and charts

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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    NAGS LNG Breakout 2019 H2 No Carbon.xls

    XLS 863.50 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Demand Breakout 2019 H2 No Carbon.xls

    XLS 1.93 MB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Price Outlook 2019 H2 No Carbon.xls

    XLS 1.03 MB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Supply and Demand Balances 2019 H2 No Carbon.xls

    XLS 986.00 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Supply Breakout 2019 H2 No Carbon.xls

    XLS 1.09 MB

  • Document

    North America gas markets sensitivity: No Carbon Policy, developed from the H2 2019 long-term outlook

    ZIP 4.28 MB

  • Document

    North America gas markets sensitivity: No Carbon Policy, developed from the H2 2019 long-term outlook

    ZIP 3.93 MB

  • Document

    NAGS_No_Carbon_Case_H2_2019.pdf

    PDF 1.13 MB