North America gas markets short-term outlook: Near record June warmth and a record storage reclassification

Henry Hub gas prices continue their rally with near record June warmth, a record storage reclassification, and TETCO southbound flow constraints. Contributing to this rally are strong exports, despite seasonality for LNG feed gas levels due to maintenance and outages. However, downside risks remain largely from US gas production. Will producer capital discipline and more focus on ESG measures slow down recent production outperformance? Or will coal-to-gas displacement at higher gas prices be more “stickier” resulting in higher gas burns as we approach peak summer power demand?