Commodity Market Report
North America Gas Short-Term Outlook November 2019: Winter is coming?
Report summary
Milder weather has once again squashed a price rally, but it is still too early in the season to discount winter price risk. Even with about 0.5 tcf of a storage cushion year-over-year and still growing production levels, winter weather is still king and can draw down storage rapidly. Add to that growing LNG export levels, solid power demand and a risk of lower Canadian imports, and the price can rise even faster.
Table of contents
- Although an early start to the winter rallied Henry Hub with hopes of recovering to $3.00/mmbtu, milder weather forecasted now into early December has squashed yet another brief rally down to $2.50/mmbtu. However, winter has just started, and it is way too early to discount winter price risk. We remain more bullish than the market, keeping our winter price outlook relatively unchanged.
- Permian and Northeast gas prices eclipse $2.00/mmbtu with colder weather.
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