Commodity Market Report
North America gas strategic planning outlook
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Report summary
North American gas demand growth is being reshaped, with power generation overtaking LNG exports as the primary growth driver. Rapid data center expansion is accelerating gas‑fired generation, including behind‑the‑meter projects. We forecast over 27 bcfd of incremental power demand between 2026 and 2043, including more than 4 bcfd in the next five years, with upside risk. Despite rising renewables, gas burns remain ~5 bcfd higher in 2060 than in 2026. LNG exports still add ~26 bcfd over 20 years, but risks are rising. Supply diversity concerns from the Iran War may support near‑term FIDs, while longer‑term demand risks increase. Stronger southern U.S. supply growth moderates prices, with Henry Hub reaching $6.50/MMBtu by 2050, nearly $1/MMBtu below our prior outlook. The full report is available in the downloads section, with data through 2060.
Table of contents
- Gas into power overtakes LNG exports as the largest source of demand growth for the North American gas market.
- LNG exports still deliver a respectable 26 bcfd of growth over the next 20 years, but the outlook is much more nuanced than before.
- Supply landscape for gas continues to evolve with current market events.
- Despite even higher market growth expectations, we expect Henry Hub to reach $6.50/mmbtu by 2050 – almost $1/mmbtu lower than our prior update.
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April 2025
- Significant growth lies ahead for the North America (NA) gas market.
- The political support and continued commercial momentum will propel US LNG exports
- US and Canadian gas production is expected to increase from 126 bcfd in 2025 to 172 bcfd in 2050 to support surging LNG exports and rising domestic demand.
- Henry Hub gas prices rise steadily in our forecast to reach $5/mmbtu by 2035 and close to $7/mmbtu by 2050.
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