Commodity Market Report
North America gas strategic planning outlook
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Report summary
The future of the North America gas market is bright. Peaking at 160 bcfd in the early-2040s, a decade later than our last update, the growth is fueled primarily by upgrades in the power sector driven by investments in data centers, re-shoring industries and headwinds with renewable generation deployment. US LNG exports also continue to play a critical role in market expansion in the medium term, despite the “Biden pause”, reaching 27 bcfd by 2030 and continuing to strengthen in the latter part of the forecast due to upgraded European LNG demand.
Table of contents
- Significant growth lies ahead for the North America (NA) gas market.
- The political support and continued commercial momentum will propel US LNG exports
- US and Canadian gas production is expected to increase from 126 bcfd in 2025 to 172 bcfd in 2050 to support surging LNG exports and rising domestic demand.
- Henry Hub gas prices rise steadily in our forecast to reach $5/mmbtu by 2035 and close to $7/mmbtu by 2050.
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April 2024
- The outlook for the North American gas market is bright.
- The global appetite for North America LNG exports remain strong.
- A structurally stronger gas market benefits both associated and non-associated producers.
- Henry Hub prices stay below $4.50/mmbtu until end of 2030s but escalates rapidly in the 2040s.
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March 2023
- Near-term (2023-2030): associated gas supply growth dominates
- Medium-term (2031-2040): LNG exports slow down while associated gas supply peaks
- Long-term (2041-2050): Stronger domestic demand offsets weaker LNG exports outlook
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March 2022
- Expansion: 2022-2033
- Stagnation: 2034-2043
- Contraction: 2044-2050
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