North America gas weekly update: Fast-track

Injections are set to rise over the second half of May as completion of maintenance events and Whistler’s commissioning are set to provide potentially more production just as WoodMac degree days reach their nadir. Higher gas prices this summer are likely to back out coal-to-gas displacement gains, but there are risks. Sustained high temperatures could expose coal-fired plants for their decisions to enter into low contracting levels and rely on stockpiles, which could prevent additional coal units from ramping up to meet demand. If that happens, gas will be burned anyways, and prices will remain high. Additionally, supply could increase further, helping to temper prices. And then there’s the winter, where more LNG could be coming online. Price risks exist in both directions for the remainder of the year.