North America gas weekly update: Warmer for longer Report

Commodity Market Report 24 December 2019

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Report summary

The coldest weather week of the withdrawal season with much higher than normal WM degree days is likely to result in a -153 bcf withdrawal. Despite the second consecutive triple digit withdrawals expected and last week’s upside surprise of -107 bcf that was over -10 bcf higher than consensus and our forecasted -96 bcf withdrawal estimate, Henry Hub prompt January prices have collapsed further. Lower gas demand from the upcoming holiday season and milder than normal weather is the culprit. Will the start of 2020 bring more constructive news to North America gas markets? US gas production continues lower and record LNG feed gas deliveries are fundamentally positive for gas prices but ultimately weather needs to get colder quickly. Note: please find an abridged version for this Christmas week.