Second time's the charm? TransCanada Mainline re-launches an open season to target Western Canadian producers

Dawn after failing to attract enough volumes in the last open season in October 2016. De-contracting on the TCPL Mainline over the past 6 months have put significant downward pressure on natural gas prices in Western Canada. Despite that pressure, however, the AECO-Dawn spread in our base case analysis from H1-2016 fell below the proposed rate post-2018. Since then, market developments suggest additional downward pressure on AECO, and our analysis from H2-2016 shows that the expected AECO-Dawn spread exceeds the proposed tariff for the majority of the new 10-year term of the deal.