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Thailand's scramble for LNG: a reality check on gas market fundamentals

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28 June 2022

Thailand's scramble for LNG: a reality check on gas market fundamentals

Report summary

Thailand’s LNG demand has surged by almost 50% in first-half 2022 compared to the same period last year. Our full-year LNG demand forecast for Thailand is around 8 Mt and PTT only imports about 5.2 Mt of LNG supply from four long-term contracts. Hence, incremental LNG demand must be met with a significant number of spot cargo purchases, unfortunately dealt at record-high prices, from an extremely tight global LNG market.

Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
    • Significant reliance on gas generation raised systemic risk in Thailand’s power sector
    • Domestic gas production’s steady decline – No upside, only downside risk
    • Dim E&P prospects in Myanmar add to Thailand’s long-term gas supply security concerns
  • Market fundamentals leave Thailand with little choice but to import more LNG
  • Expect high power prices as pricy spot LNG imports lift gas pool prices
  • Looking forward

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

  • Electricity seasonality
  • Power generation seasonality
  • Gas pool price trends
  • Monthly LNG demand (Mt)
  • Power generation mix forecast
  • Major gas producing fields

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Thailand's scramble for LNG: a reality check on gas market fundamentals

    PDF 1.99 MB