Insight
US LNG cargo cancellations: why volatility comes before balance
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Wood Mackenzie expects a period of LNG oversupply from the late 2020s into the early 2030s, a call that holds up across our range of scenarios for how the Iran war and associated Strait of Hormuz risks evolve. What comes next is the part worth dwelling on: how the global LNG market balances.
Table of contents
- Executive Summary
- Introduction to the view
- Why the supply response falls on US LNG
- Advanced decisions, delayed corrections
- The US market has its own mismatch
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A two-way street
- Similar incentives, different responses: Elba and Sabine Pass
- Conclusions
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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LNG supply, demand, and underutilization (excerpt from Strategic Planning Outlook)LNG Short Run Marginal Costs, FOB (2032)US LNG exports vs Henry Hub to TTF spreads in 2020
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US short-term balancing mechanisms during 3Q 2032, assuming no advance drilling response2026 winter storm example: US LNG feedgas vs. US gas pricingSabine Pass feedgas response vs. US daily pricesElba feedgas & sendout response vs. US daily prices
What's included
This report contains:
