US natural gas storage: half full or half empty?

Typically, large gas storage deficits heading into winter are a key ingredient for higher Henry Hub gas prices. Not this year. Due to the market outlook of continued supply growth, prices have failed to appreciate. Instead of "half empty," is storage "half full" and providing a cushion for excess production? We investigate the declining value of gas storage and our projections for storage over this winter. What happens if production underperforms? If winter demand reaches polar vortex levels? Why is the winter curve differential so low?