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What if Russian piped gas came back to Europe? A scenario analysis.

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Europe is at the point of no return concerning large-scale Russian piped gas imports. In our base case, we assume that only a handful of countries – Turkey, Serbia, Hungary – will continue importing Russian gas in the long term. But if the war were to end tomorrow, and a political agreement was going to be brokered to accommodate a return of Russian pipe imports to Europe, what would this mean for the gas market? In this report we discuss a hypothetical increase in Russian piped imports into Europe, their possible scale and routes and the implications for the global gas flows and prices.

Table of contents

    • Video - Modelling what if Russian piped gas came back into Europe, using Lens Gas and LNG
    • Introduction
    • Key factors impacting a hypothetical return of volumes
    • Infrastructure
    • Availability of gas for export
    • Contracts
    • Potential volumes and their impact
    • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

  • Russian piped flows into Europe – base case
  • Status of key infrastructure
  • Russia contracts to Europe (ACQ) vs forecast flows
  • Cycles of global gas prices - base case
  • LNG imports under the scenario

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    What if Russian piped gas came back to Europe? A scenario analysis.

    PDF 1.10 MB