Name: Will coal-to-gas switching in Japan and South Korea finally become reality in a low oil price world?
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 128783
Price: 950 USD
Availability: OnlineOnly
Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 24 April 2020

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            <h3 class="mega store_featured_content_extrabold store_font_black">Report summary</h3>
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Economic coal-to-gas switching has been a regular feature of the European power market over recent years, but economic displacement has remained limited in Japan and South Korea despite weak LNG spot prices through 2019. However, market dynamics have shifted dramatically into 2020 with oil prices collapsed in March and continue to hit new lows. This will make contacted LNG volumes sold on an oil-indexed basis considerably cheaper through the year and drag down weighted average cost of gas (WACOG) prices in Japan and South Korea. The sharp reduction in WACOG marks a fundamental change in the coal-to-gas switching story in North Asia in 2020, as the generation cost gap between coal and gas could narrow significantly, a precondition for more switching. We expect the improving economic incentives to drive more coal-to-gas switching in 2020. But challenges to wide-scale switching will remain.</div>
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                    <h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Table of contents</h3>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Executive summary
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#2c54fb14-3db8-44fd-9e39-d81899884d34" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="2c54fb14-3db8-44fd-9e39-d81899884d34" aria-expanded="false">
            Low oil prices will improve economic incentives for coal-to-gas switching
        </a>
        <ul id="2c54fb14-3db8-44fd-9e39-d81899884d34" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Gas and LNG contract prices closely follow the oil price fall
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Coal prices also shift downwards but with a lag
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#0481ad20-9c7b-435d-9026-e047476344b7" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="0481ad20-9c7b-435d-9026-e047476344b7" aria-expanded="false">
            What is the switching price and volume potential?
        </a>
        <ul id="0481ad20-9c7b-435d-9026-e047476344b7" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Price: WACOG needs to fall towards US$5.5/mmbtu, which is expected in H2 2020
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Volume: 5.3-14.9 Mt downside risk for coal and 4.5-7.5 Mt upside potential for LNG in 2020
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Monthly impact based on Wood Mackenzie’s WACOG forecast and coal price scenarios
    </li>

</ul>
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        <a href="#2b9dc21b-96e5-4781-b843-ba49f03f8f5d" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="2b9dc21b-96e5-4781-b843-ba49f03f8f5d" aria-expanded="false">
            Other challenges remain which will limit switching opportunities
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        <ul id="2b9dc21b-96e5-4781-b843-ba49f03f8f5d" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Weaker coal power demand amid the coronavirus outbreak and South Korean curtailment polices
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Nuclear and coal curtailment measures in South Korea already curtail less efficient coal capacity
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        LNG procurement patterns and storage options offer little cushion for the market in 2020
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Coal procurement flexibility improves, but Japan remains risk adverse in making short-run switching decisions
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Conclusion
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#5454e618-6916-44c5-a17d-52b73156866c" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="5454e618-6916-44c5-a17d-52b73156866c" aria-expanded="false">
            Appendix
        </a>
        <ul id="5454e618-6916-44c5-a17d-52b73156866c" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Price Assumptions
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Full year switching impact under low WACOG price and coal price scenarios
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

</ul>

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<h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Tables and charts</h3>

<p class="push-half--bottom">This report includes the following images and tables:</p>

<ul class="list list--bullets">
         <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Historical commodity prices (rebased to January 2016)</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Coal-to-gas switching economics (Japan and South Korea)</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Coal-fired power capacity distribution by efficiency</li>
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            <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom"></li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom"></li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Factors influencing coal-to-gas switching in Japan and South Korea</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom"></li>
        </ul>
        
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<p class="font-regular" >Will coal-to-gas switching in Japan and South Korea finally become reality in a low oil price world?</p>
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