Australian LNG keeps flowing to China despite growing tensions Report

Insight 15 July 2021

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Report summary

Political tensions between China and Australia are rising. This could impact the LNG sector, which would hurt the economic prospects of both countries. It may also impact China’s efforts to decarbonise. Over the past decade, both Chinese NOCs and private companies have acquired Australian upstream positions. But the rising will likely limit the number of new positions taken. Chinese buyers may also avoid signing new long-term offtake deals from Australian projects until the relationship improves. Despite this, the LNG trade is unlikely to stop, existing LNG contracts will be unaffected and spot trades will continue to rise.

Executive summary
- Rising tensions cause concerns over LNG trade
- Upstream cooperation stalls after a track record of success
- Will China become a home to surplus uncontracted LNG volumes?
- But Australian LNG is still a good fit for China in the longer term
- Australian LNG will remain a critical part of China's gas mix