Deep impact: how effective will international sanctions be on Arctic LNG-2?

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Arctic LNG-2 is nearing commissioning. When FID was taken 2019, the 19.8 mmtpa LNG export project was the single largest LNG project sanction in history. It was also symbolic of the broader, pan-continental collaboration required to get a project of such scale to market. But its future hangs in the balance. International sanctions, imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are restricting the project’s development and its ability to do business in the short- and long-term. Equity participation has been suspended, long-term commitments have been renounced, shipping contracts have been cancelled. The first cargo is on the horizon, but it doesn’t have an obvious buyer. In this insight, we examine the impact of international sanctions across four project areas of Arctic LNG-2: upstream, liquefaction, ice-class shipping, and LNG Marketing. For each, we provide a sanctions impact assessment rating.

Table of contents

    • The project
    • Upstream: sufficient domestic capabilities to manage challenges
    • Liquefaction: will the project ever reach full capacity?
    • Ice-class shipping : a physical constraint on LNG supply
    • LNG Marketing: Who will buy sanctioned LNG?
  • Knocked permanently off course
    • Sanctions impact rating scale
    • The negative impact of economic sanctions

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

  • Sanctions impact rating by project area
  • Arctic LNG-2 nominal and effective capacity ramp-up by train
  • Arctic LNG-2 ice-class LNG carrier fleet summary
  • Map of key infrastructure for Arctic LNG-2 project

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Deep impact: how effective will international sanctions be on Arctic LNG-2?

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