Emerging LNG markets: where will new demand come from?
New markets are queuing up to import LNG for the first time. We see that more than 50 additional countries have the potential to be LNG importers by 2025; these have a risked demand potential of 36 mmtpa. As new liquefaction projects are brought online, there will be plenty of LNG available to emerging buyers; and as suppliers become more willing to offer lower levels of oil indexation in contracts, its cost relative to oil will fall. As the price of crude rises, the economics of LNG will look ever more attractive to those burning large volumes of oil for power generation. The development of floating storage and regasification units will allow new markets to be opened-up more quickly, while new project models will allow the delivery of small volumes of LNG. Some emerging importers are looking to LNG to displace oil for power generation; others have declining indigenous gas production and will need LNG to bridge the supply gap; and some wish to reduce reliance on a single gas supplier.