Global gas & LNG weekly summary: 23 May 2024

June TTF prices extended its gains this week, settling at $11/mmbtu despite weak demand fundamentals. Unplanned maintenance works reducing output at the Troll and Kollsness plants, political dynamics such as OMV's arbitration with Russia, and the highest EU ETS emissions pricing in the last four months are driving the risk premium in TTF despite conditions. The spread between TTF and NW EU DES has closed, offering limited margins for those without fixed cost positions on downstream regas infrastructure. NBP is currently at a discount to TTF, with the UK experiencing weak seasonal demand, disincentivising flow to the UK. The market continues to show a net loosening week on week, with storage now at 67.5%, near the top of the five-year range and growing parallel to 2023.