Global LNG supply tracker Q3 2018: supply growth set to accelerate Report

Insight 27 September 2018

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Report summary

The year 2018 is a bridging year between the last Pacific projects and the final wave of Atlantic facilities. We expect LNG supply will reach 323 Mt of LNG in 2018 (+8% y-o-y). We expect huge supply growth this winter – with new trains starting every month.This is positive as it coincides with peaking demand in the main consuming regions. Despite this, we still anticipate a fairly tight winter market. The focus will shift to the Atlantic in 2019. The LNG market is set for its biggest year ever with +44 Mt of additional output (for a total of 367 Mt in 2019). LNG supply growth will accelerate again in H2 as US LNG projects ramp up. Growth will slow in 2020 as final trains are added at US LNG facilities. We forecast 399 Mt of LNG in 2020.

Highlights
- Downside risks to our view
  - Existing producers
  - New projects
- Upside risks to our view
  - Existing projects
  - New projects
  - Asia-Pacific LNG supply
    - Australia
    - Brunei
    - Indonesia
    - Malaysia
    - PNG
    - Russia East