IMO 2020 impact on JCC-indexed LNG

The IMO 2020 regulation will come into force on 1st January 2020. Following this, marine fuels used worldwide will have to comply with a maximum of 0.5% sulphur content. This will reduce demand for High Sulphur Fuel Oil and by consequence the price of sour crudes. But how does this affect the LNG market? Close to 50% of LNG contracts globally are indexed to Japanese Crude Cocktail (JCC), a weighted average price of a mix of crude oils imported by Japan, mostly comprised of sour Dubai and Oman crudes. The JCC has depreciated in value in relation to Brent due to IMO 2020. This Insight assesses the impact the IMO 2020 ruling will have on JCC-indexed LNG. It compares the value of JCC-indexed LNG assets and contracts before and after the announcement of the new regulation. It also assesses, on a company level, who are the winners and losers of this ripple effect of the IMO 2020 implementation.