SKU: 138426
Author: Wood Mackenzie

Commodity Market Report 30 May 2025

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Report summary

Japan is the world’s second-largest LNG importer. Competition from other generation fuels such as nuclear and renewables, the government’s energy policy, and macroeconomic factors traditionally serve as key drivers of Japan’s LNG outlook. In recent years, the boom in generative AI and data centres has led to an increase in total power requirements, which also affects LNG demand. Our report offers an in-depth analysis of Japan’s LNG market, covering gas and LNG demand and supply outlook, infrastructure, contract and pricing, policy and market structure. Read our report to discover: • How will the different drivers impact Japan’s long-term LNG demand? • How does Japan position gas in the country's 7th Strategic Energy Plan? • What key factors drive Japanese buyers' LNG contract decisions? • How might US President Trump's tariffs affect Japan's gas demand?

Japan’s LNG demand will remain relatively resilient at above 63 Mt annually until 2032, then gradually decline to 45 Mt by 2050
In Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan (SEP), gas is expected to play a critical backup role in ensuring long-term energy security
Japan’s contract supply mix is evolving
Japan is home to the largest regasification capacity in the world, with market liberalisation underway for a number of years