Japan LNG market report

Japan will lose its position as the world’s largest LNG importer to China from 2023 as its LNG demand drops below 70 mmtpa. With a low base-year demand, we downgraded LNG demand through to 2025. Afterwards, LNG imports are set to stay flat for the rest of the 2020s and moderately drop over the 2030s. Despite near-term pressures from nuclear restarts, gas will continue to play a critical role as a source of flexible and dispatchable power capacity in the mid-term, supporting the transition from coal to nuclear and renewables and meeting the additional power demand from electrification. Post-2040, demand declines intensify as the energy transition takes a firmer hold with the deployment of long-duration battery storage and hydrogen co-firing. LNG demand falls below 55 mmtpa by 2040 and towards 40 mmtpa by 2050.