LNG short-term outlook - November 2021

Low inventory and uncertain Russian gas keeps European TTF volatile, despite falling from recent highs. Strong global LNG supply keeps Pacific LNG prices from disconnecting entirely, however high charter rates and bottlenecks at Panama keep the Asian premium wide. Strong LNG supply into winter: Global output surpassed 33 Mt in October, as producers pushed hard to capture high prices. We expect global supply to increase +5% over winter compared to the previous two winters – driven by countries including Egypt and the US. However, producers which have faced chronic gas shortages this year will face difficulties boosting seasonal output.