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Russia - can it become a top-3 LNG producer by 2030?

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06 July 2021

Russia - can it become a top-3 LNG producer by 2030?

Report summary

Russia is the second largest gas producer on the planet, but produces only 30 mmpta of LNG and has a global market share of 8%. This is clearly not enough for the Russian government, which target an LNG output of between 80-140 mmtpa by 2035. These figures are achievable with the new wave of projects from NOVATEK, Gazprom, Rosneft and their partners. If all of Russia’s projects in the advanced planning stages are brought onstream, Russian output could end up between 87-94 mmtpa by 2030. This could allow the country to reach the third position of global LNG producers, just behind the US and Qatar. Russia’s share of global LNG supply would double. IOCs have a large role to play in the Russian LNG space. TotalEnergies, Shell and ExxonMobil have interests in the planned developments and will work with their respective partners to support planned delivery, while maximising long-term profit generation. The future of Russian LNG looks promising and there’s more to come.

Table of contents

    • Recent growth and new strategy
    • Which projects will appear this decade?
    • Early construction stage and possible projects
    • Wild-card LNG projects
    • Global comparison and situation in 2030
    • What does it mean for IOCs?
    • What does it mean for the global gas market and Russian piped gas sales?
    • What next?
    • Wood Mackenzie is here to support

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

  • Russian LNG projects to 2030
  • Russian LNG output to 2030
  • Russian LNG cost stack vs key global competing suppliers (delivery to China)
  • Global LNG output to 2030
  • Russian gas export forecast
  • Appendix (details of Russian LNG projects)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Russia - can it become a top-3 LNG producer by 2030?

    PDF 1.40 MB