Commodity Market Report

South Korea LNG long-term outlook 2019

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13 December 2019

South Korea LNG long-term outlook 2019

Report summary

Includes details of the LNG supply-demand balance, regas infrastructure, contract developments, market structure and policy. Key highlights this update : - LNG demand will fall towards 35 mmtpa in the early 2020’s due to pressure from new coal and nuclear capacity in the power sector - Long-term prospects for demand growth remain positive with phase of old coal and nuclear capacity in the power sector and steady growth from industrial and commercial sectors. - With contract expiries in the mid 2020’s and continued demand growth, market space is set to open significantly. It is not yet clear who will fill this gap but with increased competition, greater pricing and supply options on offer, and one of the largest LNG demands in the world on the table, the playing field is wide open. - Competition from independent buyers will increasingly challenge KOGAS’ market position. Reducing average cost of supply via new deals and price reviews will therefore be particularly important.

Table of contents

    • 2018-2019
  • Short-term outlook (2020-2021)
    • Power demand
    • Non-power demand
    • Residential/Commercial
    • Industrial
  • Contracting trends
    • Regulatory overview
    • Policy overview
    • The 13th Long-Term Natural Gas Supply Plan (2018-2031)
    • Short-Term: coal-to-gas switching
    • Mid to long-term

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

  • Long-term LNG supply-demand balance
  • South Korea contracting trends
  • Contracted LNG supply by source (mmtpa)
  • Contracts vs. LNG imports (mmtpa)
  • Contracted LNG supply by buyers (mmtpa)
  • Short-term LNG demand (monthly)
  • Power generation mix
  • South Korea energy policy targets (2030)

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