Insight
Venture Global’s IPO - What will drive value?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Venture Global, the upstart developer and operator of large-scale US LNG projects, completed an IPO that raised US$1.75 billion. We characterize Venture Global’s operations and outlook, with some comparisons to rival Cheniere Energy, to further the understanding of the company and to place it within the US LNG industry context.
Table of contents
- Executive Summary
- Introduction
- Venture Global’s core assets and growth plans
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Asset valuation
- Venture Global’s ability to produce excess capacity , sold at international spot prices, could double the NPV
- Cheniere Energy is best comparable
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Key valuation analysis and sensitivities
- Commissioning cargoes drive near-term revenue, but repeatability is a question and arbitration a concern
- Comparison of Venture Global’s planned construction and commissioning times against operational US LNG projects
- Can Venture Global deliver its excess capacity ?
- What price spread will Venture Global receive?
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Can Venture Global deliver new projects and bolt-on capacity?
- CP2 likely to FID early next year
- Attracting Customers – has Venture Global burnt its bridges?
- Bolt-on capacity
- Fast to market LNG
- Conclusions
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Appendix
- What assumptions have we made in our valuations?
- What is implied in Venture Global’s valuation and is it sustainable?
- What are Wood Mackenzie’s price assumptions and forecasts?
- Comparison of spread between US Gulf Coast FOB price and Henry Hub under both price outlooks
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Venture Global target working interest LNG capacity vs Cheniere Energy and QatarEnergyWood Mackenzie’s Base Case Valuation of Venture Global’s LNG assetsComparison of FERC filed projects with Cheniere Energy
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Comparison of asset valuation against market capitalization with CheniereWood Mackenzie’s Valuation of Venture Global’s LNG assets with excess capacityComparison of Venture Global’s planned construction and commissioning times against operational US LNG projectsAsset modelled revenue (minus gas costs) comparison with ChenierePrice Assumptions used in calculating Venture Global’s revenueWood Mackenzie’s Estimated Project Costs – excluding financing costs
What's included
This report contains:
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