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Venture Global’s IPO - What will drive value?

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Venture Global, the upstart developer and operator of large-scale US LNG projects, completed an IPO that raised US$1.75 billion. We characterize Venture Global’s operations and outlook, with some comparisons to rival Cheniere Energy, to further the understanding of the company and to place it within the US LNG industry context.

Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction
  • Venture Global’s core assets and growth plans
    • Venture Global’s ability to produce excess capacity , sold at international spot prices, could double the NPV
  • Cheniere Energy is best comparable
    • Commissioning cargoes drive near-term revenue, but repeatability is a question and arbitration a concern
    • Comparison of Venture Global’s planned construction and commissioning times against operational US LNG projects
    • Can Venture Global deliver its excess capacity ?
    • What price spread will Venture Global receive?
    • CP2 likely to FID early next year
    • Attracting Customers – has Venture Global burnt its bridges?
    • Bolt-on capacity
    • Fast to market LNG
  • Conclusions
    • What assumptions have we made in our valuations?
    • What is implied in Venture Global’s valuation and is it sustainable?
    • What are Wood Mackenzie’s price assumptions and forecasts?
    • Comparison of spread between US Gulf Coast FOB price and Henry Hub under both price outlooks

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

  • Venture Global target working interest LNG capacity vs Cheniere Energy and QatarEnergy
  • Wood Mackenzie’s Base Case Valuation of Venture Global’s LNG assets
  • Comparison of FERC filed projects with Cheniere Energy
  • Comparison of asset valuation against market capitalization with Cheniere
  • Wood Mackenzie’s Valuation of Venture Global’s LNG assets with excess capacity
  • Comparison of Venture Global’s planned construction and commissioning times against operational US LNG projects
  • Asset modelled revenue (minus gas costs) comparison with Cheniere
  • Price Assumptions used in calculating Venture Global’s revenue
  • Wood Mackenzie’s Estimated Project Costs – excluding financing costs

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Venture Global’s IPO - What will drive value?

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