Insight

A global economic slump: what will it mean for metals and mining?

Get this report

$950

You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.
 

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

04 June 2020

A global economic slump: what will it mean for metals and mining?

Report summary

The recovery from the corona-induced recession is assumed by many, including Wood Mackenzie, to be -U-shaped with a quick return to normality whatever the “new” normality turns out to be. But what if the world, excluding China, enters a slump with a sharper downturn and a slow, anaemic recovery with global economic activity taking five years to return to 2019 levels? Demand for mined commodities, costs and prices will all be impacted. Revenues for the industry will fall by a cumulative US$0.9 trillion compared with our base case. This will lead to cost cutting, corporate restructuring and capex deferral or cancellation. Well-capitalised companies may take the opportunity to buy their growth rather than take on uncertain, expensive and risky expansions. Perhaps a slump offers these same companies an opportunity to optimise their portfolios? As is often the case, fortune will favour the brave, or well capitalised.

Table of contents

  • Executive Summary

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

  • Global industrial production, year-on-year change
  • Global industrial production, year-on-year change and index (2019 = 100)
  • Mined commodity average annual growth rates 2020-2025
  • Slump scenario commodity demand/exports (2019 = 100)
  • Cost support levels for annual prices during downturns (cash percentile)
  • Slump scenario commodity price forecasts 2019 = 100, 2020 $
  • Slump scenario commodity prices and marginal costs ($/Tonne 2020$)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    A global economic slump: what will it mean for metals and mining?

    PDF 867.23 KB