Insight
China economic focus April 2025: surviving the trade war
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Trade tensions between the US and China have escalated since the announcement of the US reciprocal tariff on 2 April. In the April China economic focus, we discuss how the higher tariffs will impact the Chinese economy. We expect an economic slowdown in China due to the rising tariffs. However, exemptions, re-exports and China’s dominant position in manufacturing will help to partially avoid the economic damage. China’s export-oriented provinces and industrial sectors will face challenges. The government has policy tools available to stimulate the economy and mitigate negative impacts. The trade war is accelerating China's efforts to diversify its trade relationships. China and the EU are likely to develop a closer tie as a result.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Tariffs' impact on the Chinese economy in the short term
- What the trade war means for domestic markets and government reactions
- Why China is reorienting its trade and supply chains
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
Coastal provinces will face higher impactsFull reciprocal tariffs will have a substantial impact on ASEAN economiesWood Mackenzie's proprietary China data
-
Manufacturing PMIIndustrial production and retail salesTradeInflationPropertyInvestmentMoney supply (M2)Required reserve ratio
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
China economic focus April 2026: navigating the energy crisis
The Middle East conflict poses downside risks to the Chinese economy despite the country’s significant cushions.
$1,150
Insight
China economic focus June 2026: the slowdown deepens
Falling transport fuel demand reveals a slowdown in China's economy since April, caused by weak domestic demand and high energy prices.
$1,150
Insight
China economic focus May 2026: the Middle East war scenarios
We assess the impact of the energy crisis on China’s economy based on the assumed duration of the Middle East conflict.
$1,150
