China economic focus August 2022: property recession

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China’s property market is in recession and could potentially develop into a systematic financial and economic crisis. However, we expect a managed property recession rather than a systemic financial crisis due to supportive governmental measures. We have also downgraded our housing completion forecast due to the sectoral recession in the short term and the more bearish outlook for the demographic trend in the long term.

Table of contents

  • Highlights
  • Property market in a vicious cycle
  • Financial and economic stability at stake
  • A turnaround of housing policy
  • A downgraded urban housing completion outlook
  • Appendix

Tables and charts

This report includes 15 images and tables including:

  • Funding for property developers deteriorated
  • The direct GDP contribution of the real estate sector
  • Household loans and debt level
  • Outstanding real estate loans
  • Newly Urbanised population
  • Urban housing completions
  • Manufacturing PMI
  • IP and retail sales
  • Trade
  • Inflation
  • Property
  • Investment
  • Money supply (M2)
  • Required reserve ratio

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    China economic focus August 2022: property recession

    PDF 939.71 KB