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China economic focus January 2026: will the government save the economic downturn?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
In our first edition of China economic focus in 2026, we discuss the outlook for the Chinese economy. We forecast China’s GDP growth to slow to 4.5% in 2026 from 5% in 2025 as export and manufacturing investment come under pressure. Consumption growth, digital infrastructure and technological autonomy will be China’s policy priorities in 2026. New property stimulus is likely if China’s growth momentum weakens further in H1 2026.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Legacy challenges dampen outlook for 2026
- Areas to watch out for in 2026
- The growth red line
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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China’s key economic indicatorsSharp decline in manufacturing investment since the anti-involution campaignRetail sales of services gain momentum since Q4 2025
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Wood Mackenzie's proprietary China dataManufacturing PMIIndustrial production and retail salesInflationTradeInvestmentPropertyMoney supply (M2)Required reserve ratio
What's included
This report contains:
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