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China economic focus March 2026: the 15th Five-Year Plan explained
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
China released the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) in March with surprisingly little market fanfare, as it largely lacks the upside surprises or aggressive headline targets that investors have historically used to price in China’s growth. In the March China economic focus, we discuss: • Why does the 15th FYP deliberately avoid an aggressive GDP target? • How does the government end the era of “overbuilding”? • What is the new mindset to support consumption?
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Soft GDP targets leave room for transition
- Has the 15th FYP ended the era of overbuilding?
- Demand-side policy leads to uncertainty in implementation
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Key targets of 14th FYP vs 15th FYPChina’s GDP growth forecastWood Mackenzie's proprietary China data
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Manufacturing PMIIndustrial production and retail salesTradeInflationPropertyInvestmentMoney supply (M2)Required reserve ratio
What's included
This report contains:
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