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China economic focus October 2024: will stimulus boost growth?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
In the October China economic focus, we discuss China’s latest stimulus package and what it will take for the country to achieve a full recovery in 2025. We expect the Chinese economy to recover in Q4 2024. Since September, the government has released a series of monetary and fiscal stimuli to support growth. The stimulus package has different time frames for taking effect. Monetary easing prioritises short-term growth, while fiscal stimulus focuses on repairing local governments’ balance sheets and enabling fiscal support in the medium term. China needs more policy support to achieve full recovery in 2025. Rebounding consumption, stabilising property sales and prices, and reaching the end of the deflation cycle are the three milestones to watch out for.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Monetary easing targets short-term economic boost
- Fiscal stimulus focuses more on the medium term
- Will the stimulus support the Chinese economy bottoming out?
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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LPR rates and average mortgage rate for new loansConsumer confidence needs a boostNew home sales in 20 cities showed improvements since the end of September
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Wood Mackenzie's proprietary China dataManufacturing PMIIndustrial production and retail salesTradeInflationPropertyInvestmentMoney supply (M2)Required reserve ratio
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