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China economic focus October 2025: outlook for the 15th Five-Year Plan
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
In the October China economic focus, we examine the guidelines released in the October plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party, which outline potential priorities for the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan. China is likely to set an average annual GDP growth target of around 4.7% for its 15th Five-Year Plan. Developing new industries and stimulating consumer demand will be central to achieving this goal. Externally, the global market will remain essential for absorbing China’s excess manufacturing capacity. However, China needs to find a balance between exports and setting up plants overseas. Finally, China reaffirmed its commitment to peak carbon emissions in 2030, underscoring a shift toward renewable energy expansion and the decarbonisation of heavy industry.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- The growth target: balancing ambition with reality
- Industrial policy: push the brakes and accelerators for different sectors
- Domestic demand: the two pillars of consumption
- External strategy: encouraging exports and outbound FDI at the same time
- Peak carbon emission: a hard deadline by 2030
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Achieving long-term 2035 targets may be challenging for ChinaGross saving ratesWood Mackenzie's proprietary China data
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Manufacturing PMIIndustrial production and retail salesTradeInflationPropertyInvestmentMoney supply (M2)Required reserve ratio
What's included
This report contains:
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