Insight
China economic focus June 2026: the slowdown deepens
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
China's growth momentum has weakened sharply since April, following a strong first quarter. In the June China economic focus, we use declining transport fuel demand to examine the slowdown and assess the outlook for policy support. Investment and consumption have both deteriorated. We expect GDP growth to decelerate below 4.5% in the second quarter. High energy prices are compounding the squeeze, weighing on consumers and lifting project costs while government funding stays tight. We expect new stimulus once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, focused mainly on AI infrastructure and the service sector.
Table of contents
- Sluggish fuel demand signals a cooling economy
- High energy prices compound the squeeze
- Beijing's path ahead
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
Government regulated maximum retail fuel prices: BeijingPrice increases were absorbed by the producers along the supply chainsWood Mackenzie's proprietary China data
-
Manufacturing PMIIndustrial production and retail salesTradeInflationInvestmentPropertyMoney supply (M2)Required reserve ratio
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
China economic focus August 2026: the 15th Five-Year Plan for consumption
China sets challenging growth target for consumption.
$1,150
Insight
China economic focus July 2026: AI and the next phase of China’s growth
AI's macroeconomic payoff will arrive in stages for China
$1,150
Insight
Global economic outlook Q3 2026: approaching a tipping point
The global economy continues to hold firm, but is it approaching a tipping point?
$1,150
