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China economic focus June 2026: the slowdown deepens
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
China's growth momentum has weakened sharply since April, following a strong first quarter. In the June China economic focus, we use declining transport fuel demand to examine the slowdown and assess the outlook for policy support. Investment and consumption have both deteriorated. We expect GDP growth to decelerate below 4.5% in the second quarter. High energy prices are compounding the squeeze, weighing on consumers and lifting project costs while government funding stays tight. We expect new stimulus once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, focused mainly on AI infrastructure and the service sector.
Table of contents
- Sluggish fuel demand signals a cooling economy
- High energy prices compound the squeeze
- Beijing's path ahead
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Government regulated maximum retail fuel prices: BeijingPrice increases were absorbed by the producers along the supply chainsWood Mackenzie's proprietary China data
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Manufacturing PMIIndustrial production and retail salesTradeInflationInvestmentPropertyMoney supply (M2)Required reserve ratio
What's included
This report contains:
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