China economic focus September 2023: three factors for recovery

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We forecast China's GDP growth for 2023 and 2024 to be 5.2% and 4.8%, respectively. It requires a recovery in the property sector, industrial production and exports. In the recent release of the August data, we have observed some improvement in industrial production and consumer demand. While we need to monitor the green shoots of the domestic recovery in August data in the following months, external demand and the property sector are perpetuating more uncertainties around whether and when the recovery will catch up.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Has the Chinese economy started to recuperate?
  • Will the stimulus turn the construction sector around?
  • Will the resurgence in industrial production continue?
  • Will orders return to China as the global economy recovers?
  • Appendix

Tables and charts

This report includes 12 images and tables including:

  • Manufacturing PMI vs service PMI
  • Inventory growth hits the bottom
  • Exchange rate changes since the beginning of 2023
  • Wood Mackenzie's proprietary China data
  • Manufacturing PMI
  • Industrial production and retail sales
  • Trade
  • Inflation
  • Property
  • Investment
  • Money supply (M2)
  • Required reserve ratio

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    China economic focus September 2023: three factors for recovery

    PDF 1.12 MB