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China in transition: implications for commodity demand

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19 November 2015

China in transition: implications for commodity demand

Report summary

Wood Mackenzie's Chief Economist, Ed Rawle, recently presented to several CEO conferences organised by Wells Fargo in the US. Ed focused his presentation on China, specifically what the transition from an industrial, investment led economy to more of a consumer based economy means for commodity demand. The presentation addresses the following key questions: Why is China's economy slowing, and how fast? What is China doing to create sustainable economic growth into the future? What do we expect China's renminbi to do into the long term? Which commodities win/ lose from China's transition? Have we reached peak steel? If so, what does this mean for iron ore? Why is oil demand in China holding up while other commodity demand falters? Will it last? Finally, will the wave of chemical output from the US find a home in China?

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