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Economic focus: five implications of Brexit

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Report summary

Uncertainty surrounds Brexit damaging business and consumer confidence and causing financial market volatility. In this Economic Focus we look at our key implications of the UK's vote to leave the EU. Little is certain at this point including whether the Brexit will actually take place. We expect uncertainty to push the UK into recession by the end of the year and European growth to slow by a lesser degree. But the long term economic impact will remain unclear until we know about how Brexit negotiations unfold.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Economic focus: five implications of Brexit

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Table of contents

  • 1. The vote was close, highlighting a divided UK
  • 2. When will the UK leave the EU?
  • 3. What are the implications of Brexit for the UK economy?
  • 4. What are the implications of Brexit for the EU?
  • 5. Why has the financial market backlash been significant outside the EU?
  • Conclusion
  • Economic indicators

Tables and charts

This report includes 22 images and tables including:

Images

  • UK real GDP: latest forecast vs previous
  • UK trade position
  • EU exports to the UK
  • EU exports to the UK as % of GDP
  • Trade-weighted currency indices (May 1 = 100)
  • Global markets rebounding from Brexit losses
  • USA purchasing managers' indices
  • Eurozone purchasing managers' indices
  • Japan purchasing managers' indices
  • China purchasing managers' indices
  • Industrial production - developed economies
  • Industrial production - emerging markets
  • Consumer sentiment index
  • Consumer sentiment index
  • 10-year government bond yields (%)
  • 10-year government bond yields (%)
  • Consumer price index (annual % change)
  • Consumer price index (annual % change)
  • Exchange rate indices vs US$ (Jan 2012 =100)
  • Exchange rate indices vs US$ (Jan 2012 = 100)
  • Oil and gas prices
  • Copper and freight prices

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