Uncertainty surrounds Brexit, damaging business and consumer confidence and causing financial market volatility. In this Economic Focus we look at our key implications of the UK's vote to leave the EU. Little is certain at this point, including whether the Brexit will actually take place. We expect uncertainty to push the UK into recession by the end of the year, and European growth to slow by a lesser degree. But the long term economic impact will remain unclear until we know about how Brexit negotiations unfold.