Insight
Global economic outlook Q3 2025: tariffs toughen
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global economy faces a challenging adjustment as escalating trade tariffs reshape international commerce. While the first half of 2025 showed resilience in the face of mounting trade tensions, the full impact of protectionist policies is now beginning to materialise, setting the stage for subdued economic growth through 2026. In this insight, we outline our expectations for the global economy.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Tariffs toughen
- US: full impact of tariffs yet to emerge
- China: momentum slipping
- Transshipment clampdown
- Trade uncertainty will persist
- Europe: defence spending won’t revitalise the economy
- A new economic order?
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- US effective tariff rate
- Global GDP growth
- US domestic demand growth
- US labour market
- China's growth indicators
- Vietnam trade data
- US tariffs on key Asian economies
- EU budget balances and defence spending
What's included
This report contains:
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