Global economic outlook Q4 2022: recession here, there but not everywhere

The energy crisis, soaring inflation and aggressive monetary policy tightening are set to leave a mark on the global economy in 2023. Global GDP growth will slump to 2.1% – the weakest global expansion since 2001 outside of the Covid-19 and global financial crises – driven by a recession in Europe and stalling growth in the US. However, we do not expect a synchronised global recession; China bucks the trend with growth accelerating next year on the expectation that its zero-Covid policy will begin to relax, kickstarting a domestic rebound.