Russia/Ukraine conflict: the economics of war Report

Insight 31 March 2022

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            <h3 class="mega store_featured_content_extrabold store_font_black">Report summary</h3>
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, the escalating conflict and subsequent sanctions on Russia by Western countries and their allies have rocked the global economy. The destruction caused by the war has Ukraine heading for a deep economic contraction in 2022. In Russia, the economic picture is deteriorating too with the squeeze of sanctions. The global economy risks being thrown off course. In this insight, we outline how Russia and Ukraine face economic collapse in the short term. And we consider how bad the situation could get for the global economy in a downside scenario.</div>
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                    <h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Table of contents</h3>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Executive summary
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Economics of war
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Ukrainian economy set back two decades
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<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#65ac28d1-b43c-494f-842d-7daa51dd1210" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="65ac28d1-b43c-494f-842d-7daa51dd1210" aria-expanded="false">
            Russian economy feeling the pain
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        <ul id="65ac28d1-b43c-494f-842d-7daa51dd1210" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Business climate in Russia deteriorating rapidly
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Will Russia default on its debt?
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Ripple effects for the global economy
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<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        How bad could it get for the global economy?
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<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Does this change the global economic landscape indelibly?
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<h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Tables and charts</h3>

<p class="push-half--bottom">This report includes the following images and tables:</p>

<ul class="list list--bullets">
         <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Ukraine economic collapse</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Population flight</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Russian official reserve assets</li>
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            <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Oil price in roubles</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Russia's top trading partners (2020)</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Trade exposure to Russia (2020)</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Russia net foreign direct investment (FDI) outflows</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Banks' exposure to Russia</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Global GDP growth</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Global GDP index</li>
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<h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom ">What's included</h3>
<p class="push-half--bottom ">This report contains:</p>
<ul class="list"><li class="list__item-icon push-half--bottom"><svg class="list__image-icon" width="13.9" height="17.2" viewBox="0 0 13.9 17.2"><title>Document</title><g fill="#232323"><path d="M13.8 3.5L10.3.2c-.1-.2-.2-.2-.3-.2H1.5C.7 0 0 .7 0 1.5v14.2c0 .8.7 1.5 1.5 1.5h10.9c.8 0 1.5-.7 1.5-1.6V3.8c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3zm-3.4-1.8l1.7 1.6h-1.7V1.7zm2 14.4H1.5c-.2 0-.5-.2-.5-.5V1.5c0-.2.3-.5.5-.5h7.8v2.9c0 .2.2.5.5.5h3.1v11.3c0 .2-.2.4-.5.4z"></path><path d="M11.1 6.3H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5s.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5s-.3-.5-.5-.5zM11.1 12.6H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5-.1-.3-.3-.5-.5-.5zM3.7 10.4H11c.3 0 .6-.2.5-.5 0-.2-.2-.5-.5-.5H3.6c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.6.5z"></path></g></svg>
<p class="font-regular" >Russia/Ukraine conflict: the economics of war</p>
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