Insight
Trade wars, broken Union and China credit conundrum: risks to the global economy H1 2017
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Report summary
Three emerging risks could destabilise the global economy within the next five years. They are an escalation in trade protectionism, further fragmentation of the European Union, and a debt crisis in China. We estimate these risks could wipe between $2.2 and $3.6 trillion off global GDP by 2021. To put those figures in perspective, they are roughly equivalent to the current size of the economies of Brazil and Germany.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Trump's tirade on trade
- Eurozone collapse and further fracturing of the EU
- China debt crisis
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes 5 images and tables including:
- Global GDP in 2021: base case and scenarios
- Global GDP in 2021: protectionism scenario
- Real GDP index for major European economies (base case and downside scenario)
- Global GDP in 2021: China debt crisis scenario
- Debt in China
What's included
This report contains:
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