Insight
Trade wars, broken Union and China credit conundrum: risks to the global economy H1 2017
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Three emerging risks could destabilise the global economy within the next five years. They are an escalation in trade protectionism, further fragmentation of the European Union, and a debt crisis in China. We estimate these risks could wipe between $2.2 and $3.6 trillion off global GDP by 2021. To put those figures in perspective, they are roughly equivalent to the current size of the economies of Brazil and Germany.
Table of contents
-
Executive summary
- Trump's tirade on trade
- Eurozone collapse and further fracturing of the EU
- China debt crisis
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
Global GDP in 2021: base case and scenariosGlobal GDP in 2021: protectionism scenarioReal GDP index for major European economies (base case and downside scenario)Global GDP in 2021: China debt crisis scenarioDebt in China
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Global economic outlook Q2 2026: global economy faces historic energy shock
A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is now the greatest single risk to the global economy.
$1,150
Insight
Global economic outlook Q1 2026: pushed and pulled
Economic headwinds set to pull global growth lower in 2026
$1,150
Insight
China economic focus April 2026: navigating the energy crisis
The Middle East conflict poses downside risks to the Chinese economy despite the country’s significant cushions.
$1,150
