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Trade wars, broken Union and China credit conundrum: risks to the global economy H1 2017

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Report summary

Three emerging risks could destabilise the global economy within the next five years. They are an escalation in trade protectionism further fragmentation of the European Union and a debt crisis in China. We estimate these risks could wipe between $2.2 and $3.6 trillion off global GDP by 2021. To put those figures in perspective they are roughly equivalent to the current size of the economies of Brazil and Germany.

What's included

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  • Document

    Q1 2017 risks to the global economy.xls

    XLS 448.50 KB

  • Document

    H1 2017 risks to the global economy.pdf

    PDF 1.15 MB

  • Document

    Trade wars, broken Union and China credit conundrum: risks to the global economy H1 2017

    ZIP 1.10 MB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

Images

  • Global GDP in 2021: base case and scenarios
  • Global GDP in 2021: protectionism scenario
  • Real GDP index for major European economies (base case and downside scenario)
  • Global GDP in 2021: China debt crisis scenario
  • Debt in China

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