Whilst peak oil demand is not Wood Mackenzie’s base case outlook, the disruptive impact of technology in mobility means that it is a distinct possibility. As such, it is a critical topic of interest for both oil producers, refiners and consumers alike, as it is important to ensure future investments are sustainable over the long term. Resource-rich national oil companies are potentially far more exposed than the oil majors to the impact of declining oil demand, as they have much greater oil reserves (particularly when measured as a factor of current production) and so, in the extreme case, their Upstream reserves may not be monetised and become stranded. Resource-rich NOCs are, however, relatively short of refining capacity compared to the oil majors. This insight explores whether growth in their downstream exposure could be a winning strategy for such NOCs.