2026 Metals and Mining at half time: more fragile than it looks, more resilient than it feels

2026 has delivered twists and turns. The Middle East conflict is the year's dominant shock so far, disrupting oil and gas flows and broader supply chains and rippling through metals and mining, while China's Five-Year Plan passed quietly and US tariffs held firm. Metals and mining have shown surprising resilience, but cracks are emerging: aluminium supply has been directly affected, copper and nickel indirectly, and inflation is slowly building. Electrification and energy security are rising up the policy agenda and may remain a while longer. Our mid-year review assesses what has played out, what has surprised us, and what the second half of 2026 holds for commodities and markets.