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Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update

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Report summary

Wood Mackenzie's alumina price forecast are projected to be modestly higher than the calculated incentive price of $360/t (2015 US$) in the period 2016-2020, before rising sharply in the early 2020s. Therefore, we do not project refinery supply constrains in the coming years. In contrast, our base case aluminium price is projected to remain below the incentive price of $2300/t for the remainder of this decade, increasing the risks of a smelter supply crunch in the first few years after 2020.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update

    PDF 318.70 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • China's contribution to future supply projected to decline
  • Operating costs outpace prices
    • Smelter capital intensity outside of China, 1980-2014 (US$/t installed capacity)
  • Ample future refinery capacity and temporary tightness in smelter supply
  • Rationale, risks and IRR methodology
  • Assumptions used to construct incentive prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

Images

  • Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update: Image 1
  • Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update: Image 2
  • Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update: Image 3
  • Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update: Image 4
  • Historical and equilibrium alumina prices (2015 US$/t alumina)
  • Historical and equilibrium prices (2015 US$/t aluminium)

Tables

  • Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update: Table 1
  • Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update: Table 2

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