Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update
Wood Mackenzie's alumina price forecast are projected to be modestly higher than the calculated incentive price of $360/t (2015 US$) in the period 2016-2020, before rising sharply in the early 2020s. Therefore, we do not project refinery supply constrains in the coming years. In contrast, our base case aluminium price is projected to remain below the incentive price of $2300/t for the remainder of this decade, increasing the risks of a smelter supply crunch in the first few years after 2020.
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China's contribution to future supply projected to decline