2017 will be a year of volatility as events related to China steer trends in global aluminium markets. New capacity additions and fall-out from trade disputes will shape market sentiment and price trajectory. Other important factors likely to influence the market in 2017 will be the resolve of the Chinese government to follow through on enforcing pollution control regulations and the direction of raw material prices for aluminium and alumina production. The risk to our 2017 base case global market balance is that our 900 kt surplus may prove to be too pessimistic. The same is true for our average annual metal price forecast of $1,666/t.