We predict the cycle will turn in 2017, and confidence will start to return to the E&P sector, bringing the crushing two year investment slump to a close. E&P spend will rise by 3%, and at the forefront of the revival will be US tight oil. Costs will continue to fall, though only marginally. But 2017 will demonstrate how much more efficient the E&P industry has become. We predict double the number of FIDs compared to 2016, and an increase in profitability for explorers and developers.